// FOOTBALL STATISTICAL DATA API

Production-grade football projections.

Built for research, content, and analytics.

PoisStack v1.1 — a 6-layer statistical model across 22 competitions, exposed via Bearer-authenticated REST. OpenAPI 3.0 spec, daily refresh, transparent backtest.

Apply for an API key →View OpenAPI 3.0 spec

Methodology — PoisStack v1.1

Six-layer statistical pipeline. Layer order matters; each step refines the prior.

Poisson base rates

Poisson regression with low-score correction (rho), per-league ξ time decay (half-life 347d for stable leagues).

xG luck adjustment

λ corrected by past 8-match xG vs actual goals ratio. Captures regression to mean before the institutions move.

Negative Binomial dispersion

r = 15. Models over-dispersion in goal counts that Poisson under-represents.

Monte Carlo simulation

30,000 samples per fixture. Produces full joint goal PMF, win/draw probabilities, total goals, both-teams-score, half-time result.

Institutional calibration

35% blend with implied probabilities from a basket of public sources. Corrects systematic model biases without giving up signal.

Sanity check interceptors

11 rules flag boundary-fit Poisson outputs, attack/defense parameter blow-ups, and probability gaps vs institutions > 25pp. Blocks ship if any fire.

API Endpoints

Bearer authentication on every endpoint. Full OpenAPI 3.0 spec linked below.

/api/promo/digest

Daily summary — accuracy YTD, fresh projections count, recent backtest delta.

/api/promo/today

Today's high-confidence projections across all 22 covered competitions.

/api/promo/recommendations

Projections filtered by confidence threshold and league. Tunable params.

/api/promo/stats

Backtest statistics — overall accuracy, per-league hit rates, ECE.

/api/promo/recent-hits

Most recent settled fixtures with model projection vs actual result.

View OpenAPI 3.0 spec →

Use Cases

How current integrators use the data.

// CONTENT

Content automation

Power football preview articles, podcasts, newsletter automation. The digest endpoint covers a full daily newsletter in one call.

// RESEARCH

Research

Academic and quantitative analysis of football outcomes. Backtest data is open; methodology is published.

// DASH

Analytics platforms

Embed projections in your own dashboard. Stable schema, predictable refresh cadence.

// TRADING

Trading desks

Statistical reference for sports-trading firms where legal and regulated. Output is descriptive only, not directional.

// PRICING

Pricing

API access is currently invite-only while we capacity-plan for the World Cup peak. Email us with your use case, expected request volume, and company/organization (if applicable), and we'll get back within 48 hours.

Apply for an API key →

Transparency

Numbers we publish so you don't have to take our word for it.

49.53%

1X2 hit rate · 4,179 backtested matches (YTD)

1.91%

Expected Calibration Error

Competitions covered

Statistical outputs per fixture

Full methodology →

POISGOAL provides statistical analysis for informational and research purposes only. We do not provide financial, wagering, or speculation advice.