POISGOAL
🏆FIFA WORLD CUP 2026 · 48 NATIONS · 104 MATCHES

WORLD CUP 2026

PoisStack v1 statistical model rates all 48 qualified nations: group draws, knockout odds, and our path-to-trophy projection updated every 3 hours.

🇺🇸UNITED STATES×11
🇲🇽MEXICO×3
🇨🇦CANADA×2
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WHY POISGOAL

Model transparency over hype. Backtest numbers below are verifiable on /results.

v1.1
PoisStack model
Poisson + xG + ELO + institutional blend
22
Competitions covered
Top European + Americas + Asia + WC
1.91%
Calibrated ECE
Lower = better. Top tier of public models.
77.61%
Double Chance accuracy
4,184 historical matches · 3,247 hits

FREQUENTLY ASKED

Our football model: a Poisson base + xG blending + ELO ratings + institutional calibration. For the World Cup we add FIFA Elo (proxy for international strength) and host advantage (Mexico +0.55 goals, USA +0.30, Canada +0.25). Full methodology on /worldcup/odds.
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